Surge in Pending Home Sales Continues

Pending home sales have risen for three consecutive months, reflecting the broad impact of the home buyer tax credit and favorable housing affordability conditions, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 6.0 percent to 110.9 based on contracts signed in April, from an upwardly revised 104.6 in March, and is 22.4 percent higher than April 2009 when it was 90.6. That follows gains of 7.1 percent in March and 8.3 percent in February. Pending home sales are at the highest level since last October when the index reached 112.4 and first-time buyers were rushing to beat the initial deadline for the tax credit. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said this second round of surging sales from the tax credit extension looks as strong as the original tax credit. “There were concerns that only a small pool of buyers were left to take advantage of the tax credit extension. But evidently the tax stimulus, combined with improved consumer confidence and low mortgage interest rates, are contributing to surging sales,” he said. “The housing market has to get back on its own feet and now appears to be in a good position to return to sustainable levels even without government stimulus, provided the economy continues to add jobs.” NAR expects a net of 1 million additional jobs in the second half of this year and about 2 million in 2011.

“The home buyer tax credit brought close to 1 million additional buyers into the market, which is now helping the trade-up market and has significantly improved the inventory situation. This stabilized home prices more quickly and has preserved about $900 billion in home equity; in turn, that is keeping additional households from going underwater and risking foreclosure,” Yun said.

Pending Home Sales Index by region:
Northeast: jumped 29.5 percent to 97.9 in April and is 24.5 percent above a year ago.
Midwest: rose 4.1 percent to 104.2 and is 17.9 percent above April 2009.
South: slipped 0.6 percent to an index of 123.9, but is 31.3 percent higher than a year ago.
West: increased 7.5 percent to 107.9 and is 12.0 percent higher than April 2009.

“A big concern surfacing recently is insufficient time to close the deal at the settlement table. Under normal circumstances, two months would be enough time from contract signing to settlement date,” Yun said. “However, the recent housing cycle has brought long delays related to the short sales approval process by banks, and from ongoing appraisal issues." He added that there could be a sizable number of home buyers who responded to tax credit incentives, but may encounter problems meeting the settlement deadline by June 30. Because of these market challenges, NAR has asked Congress to provide flexibility on the deadline for closing.

Source: NAR

Economic and L.A. Real Estate Update

Existing home sales rose 7.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units from 5.36 million units in March. The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose 11.5% to 4.04 million, an 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.1-month supply in March.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index — on a seasonally adjusted basis — was unchanged in March after a 0.1% decline in February.

The consumer confidence index rose to 63.3 in May from a slightly revised 57.7 in April. Economists had anticipated a reading of 59. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ending May 21 rose 11.3%. Refinancing applications jumped 17%. Purchase volume decreased 3.3%.

Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — rose 2.9% in April after falling a slightly revised 1.2% in March. The increase was largely due to a jump in demand for commercial aircraft. Excluding volatile transportation-related goods, orders posted a monthly decrease of 1%.

New home sales rose 14.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 units from an upwardly revised rate of 439,000 units in March. Economists had expected a pace of 425,000 units. The April reading was the highest level since May 2008.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 14,000 to 460,000 for the week ending May 22. Continuing claims for the week ending May 15 fell by 49,000 to 4.61 million.

Information provided courtesy of Marie Richarz, Prospect Mortgage.